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WORLDWIDE Chapter 149 Message Board Forum Index » Pocket Watch Discussions » funny stuff and ongoing PW losses at the auctions
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funny stuff and ongoing PW losses at the auctions
PostPosted: Fri Oct 16, 2020 4:44 pm Reply with quote
HOWARD
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Joined: 19 Sep 2008
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For a while I have been watching various American watches at the JH various auctions, eBay and certain web sites and apparently some guys are losing money, like buying from one venue and flipping on to another where they are selling at less money.

How much can these geniuses afford to lose and for what length of time?

Apparently many of these RRs and others are weaker than some collectors understand. If others followed this flipping business, how would this affect sales prices? Maybe the market is not as strong as some newbies think?

Howard

PS I recently read where Tom McI was bemoaning that fact that he got killed in several NH auctions and he bought that gold English stuff some years ago!

He must have made some very poor buys.

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PostPosted: Fri Oct 16, 2020 6:48 pm Reply with quote
JohnL
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Howard

whats happening lately has been going on for some time now...the only difference is the frequency of items showing up on 1 site, the turn around time used to be months before seeing them on eBay....

now , thats down to weeks, sometimes DAYS they will show up for sale...

what i find amazing is the price of the goods sold for, is published and it is not very tough to figure out what someone is making/losing on these RR, minus the fees that are piled on at the end of the auctions....

Its a game when the sellers are buying these on 1 venue, flipping them on another...


as far as business model, i can't see how this makes long term sense as all of the data is published and easily researched online...

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PostPosted: Sat Oct 17, 2020 4:35 pm Reply with quote
Jon
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desparate measures by desperate people

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SUPPORT ETHICAL PRACTICES IN HOROLOGY--Keep watches original--DO NOT SWITCH, PART OUT OR "CREATE" PW abortions!
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PostPosted: Sun Oct 18, 2020 7:37 am Reply with quote
interstatetime
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Joined: 03 Dec 2002
Posts: 3536
Location: Indiana




I think that at the beginning of this series of JH auctions there were actually some rips. There were people who bought smart and flipped at a profit. As more people saw this and figured they could do it too there were fewer rips at JH and more JH stuff showing up on the Bay a week later at prices that were too high.

I will say this, as a sort of hopeful thing; I have a couple of wrist watch friends started asking me about pocket watches a year or so ago. A couple of these guys will send me a group of JH lot numbers every couple of weeks and ask for my opinion. I love doing it. These guys have bought some great American watches at JH. They have paid more than I would have but, as compared to a comparable wristie ,a thousand here or there is trivial to them...and they are collectors not flippers.

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PostPosted: Sun Oct 18, 2020 8:52 am Reply with quote
Neilywatch
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Did they say to you why they are branching out to PW's?

I am always suspicious when WW collectors branch out to PW's - its usually the other way around.

The pool of PW collectors is still shrinking, IMO. There are too many innuendo's of shill bidders and FOMO bidders at some of the AH's.

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PostPosted: Sun Oct 18, 2020 10:30 am Reply with quote
geno
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The game today is not about rips, anybody can buy a bargain. It is how much can you pay and still make a profit. Sometimes my return is as low as 2-3% and anything above 5% is a winner. You need to make a lot of singles and doubles and forget about the homeruns they are few and far between. Exact value bidding is practiced by more and more bidders, where you leave the bid at the actual value you think it is worth. If something is worth $1000 that is the bid you leave, a real rip killer. There are exceptions but trying to make more than 10% on Ebay or major auctions is extremely hard. If you bid on enough items you will still get some better returns but you have to buy a lot to make this work. Right now too many people have too much money or have access to low interest loans and with the search engines it just makes it that much harder to buy. Newbies trying to compete with all the sharks out there will get eaten up or bid up. Geno
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PostPosted: Sun Oct 18, 2020 10:39 am Reply with quote
geno
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interstatetime wrote:
I think that at the beginning of this series of JH auctions there were actually some rips. There were people who bought smart and flipped at a profit. As more people saw this and figured they could do it too there were fewer rips at JH and more JH stuff showing up on the Bay a week later at prices that were too high.

I will say this, as a sort of hopeful thing; I have a couple of wrist watch friends started asking me about pocket watches a year or so ago. A couple of these guys will send me a group of JH lot numbers every couple of weeks and ask for my opinion. I love doing it. These guys have bought some great American watches at JH. They have paid more than I would have but, as compared to a comparable wristie ,a thousand here or there is trivial to them...and they are collectors not flippers.
They are lucky to have you as a mentor. In the late 60.s and for many years after, most people were a clam about prices, you had to go to shows and buy and sell to figure out what something was worth. Roy E's first price guide was a great help and really started the rise of pocket watch values. Geno
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PostPosted: Sun Oct 18, 2020 10:55 am Reply with quote
interstatetime
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geno wrote:
The game today is not about rips, anybody can buy a bargain. It is how much can you pay and still make a profit. Sometimes my return is as low as 2-3% and anything above 5% is a winner. You need to make a lot of singles and doubles and forget about the homeruns they are few and far between.


Geno,

We do this differently and think about it differently. I know you do a lot more volume than I do. I think that in the 4 or 5 months before the pandemic hit I bought and sold just under 500 watches. I buy both wrist and pocket watches. Most were bought as boxes of junkers from jewelers or collectors...none were bought or sold at auction or at any online venue. Probably no more than 10-15% of these watches were individual collectable watches. Probably no more than 10-15 of the watches I bought in this period stayed with me. The rest were sold to dealers or collectors. I know a couple of them put some of the watches on eBay and the rest I have no idea.

I will not buy any watch or lot of watches that I don't think have a much greater profit margin than you are talking about. I don't want to spend that much time for that little profit. I pass up lots of deals that I think wouldn't let me make at least 20 and usually at least 30%. This just isn't worth the time and effort to me. When I say "rip" I just mean the Speedmaster I bought for 3 grand that is an easy sale at 6. The RIPs are not every day occurrences but they happen

During this time I was probably making 2-3 day trips a week to visit my sources and to make new contacts. I rarely drove more than 150-200 miles from my house. I sold most of the junkers to one guy who does ebay. I sold the decent stuff to another guy who does eBay or to collectors I know. I churn and burn. I don't have the vast percentage of this stuff for more than 2 or 3 days...ever.

It is harder to do this now but I still try to go see some of my contacts from time to time.

Again, I have only purchased one watch from JH or any auction this year. I have not sold any watches at auction this year. It just doesn't work for me.

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PostPosted: Sun Oct 18, 2020 10:59 am Reply with quote
interstatetime
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Neilywatch wrote:
Did they say to you why they are branching out to PW's?

I am always suspicious when WW collectors branch out to PW's - its usually the other way around.

The pool of PW collectors is still shrinking, IMO. There are too many innuendo's of shill bidders and FOMO bidders at some of the AH's.


These guys love watches and have heard that pocket watches are a great deal these days. All you have to do is read HODINKEE to figure that out. If you love watches, why not love pocket watches. They are a freakin' great deal right now.

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PostPosted: Sun Oct 18, 2020 4:03 pm Reply with quote
geno
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The friends that I have that like John buy away from the internet do much better margin wise. I never buy anything that is not from an auction or Ebay, I do not have the contacts or desire to go out even in my area to buy. When I go to an Nawcc show, the focus is to sell not buy and I usually stay at my table the entire time except for the opening when I scurry around like everyone else. Right now between Ebay and other auctions, mostly Jones Horan I get better prices and can sell much more than at a show. Both systems seem to work for the internet and non internet buyer concepts. One of my friends who does both auctions and buying from the public really does well. Like John, I have friends who scoff at any margin under 10%. They will usually get the super rips of 2-5 times the money, something that very rarely happens in my world of buying and selling. My concept was always to buy high and sell low and move out the goods, unlike many of the other guys who buy low and the try to sell high, these are the guys I can't do business with. Hey whatever works for you is great. Geno
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PostPosted: Mon Oct 19, 2020 2:29 pm Reply with quote
interstatetime
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Geno...exactly.

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PostPosted: Mon Oct 19, 2020 7:48 pm Reply with quote
geno
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interstatetime wrote:
Geno...exactly.
John check your messages
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funny stuff and ongoing PW losses at the auctions
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